21/50-Day "Death Cross" Hits Bitcoin — On-Chain Metrics Point to $56K Low
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21/50-Day "Death Cross" Hits Bitcoin — On-Chain Metrics Point to $56K Low



Cryptocurrency analyst Ali Martinez is flagging a familiar — and historically ominous — technical signal for Bitcoin: a short-term moving average has just crossed below a longer-term one, a pattern that has preceded sharp sell-offs in previous cycles.

What happened
– On a daily chart Martinez shared on X, Bitcoin’s 21-day simple moving average (SMA) recently slipped under its 50-day SMA. SMAs average price over a set period to smooth out noise; traders often watch crossovers between different SMAs for trend signals.
– Historically, this particular 21/50-day crossover has acted like a “death cross” for Bitcoin. Martinez’s decade-long chart highlights prior instances where the signal was followed by steep drawdowns, typically in the 54%–69% range.
– The most recent comparable instance was the 2022 crossover, which preceded a near-66% decline into that bear-market bottom.

Why it matters now
– If this crossover again ushers in bearish momentum, on-chain metrics suggest a possible downside target. Martinez pointed to the Realized Price-to-Liveliness Ratio — an on-chain level that blends two indicators:
– Realized Price: the cost basis of the average investor/address on the Bitcoin blockchain.
– Liveliness: a measure of how much long-term holders are spending versus HODLing.
– Martinez noted on X: “The last time Bitcoin $BTC fell below the Realized Price-to-Liveliness Ratio, it moved toward the Realized Price.” Today the ratio sits around $87,500 and the Realized Price is about $56,000.

Short-term price context
– Bitcoin briefly dipped below the $87,500 Realized Price-to-Liveliness mark during a Sunday pullback but recovered above it. At the time of writing, BTC is trading around $89,500, roughly 2% higher over the past seven days.

Bottom line
– The 21/50-day SMA crossover is a warning signal with a track record in prior cycles, and on-chain levels give a framework for potential downside if selling intensifies. As always, moving averages and on-chain ratios are probabilistic tools — useful for context but not guarantees — so traders and investors should weigh signals alongside risk-management plans and broader macro conditions.

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