62% of U.S. Bitcoin Spot ETF Inflows Now Underwater After $2.82B Withdrawn Clickable image
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62% of U.S. Bitcoin Spot ETF Inflows Now Underwater After $2.82B Withdrawn



On-chain analysis shows U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs are now sitting underwater: roughly two-thirds of capital that flowed into these funds is trading below its cost basis, according to analyst Checkmate.

What happened
– Checkmate posted a chart on X tracking weekly net flows into U.S. BTC spot ETFs and the funds’ average cost basis. The data show two massive outflow weeks — $1.33 billion and $1.49 billion — the third- and second-largest withdrawals in the ETFs’ history.
– Using the assumption that each inflow’s cost basis is the price on the day it occurred, Checkmate calculates that 62% of ETF inflows are currently “underwater” (held at a loss).
– The sell-off coincided with Bitcoin slipping below $80,000; the token dipped to $75,000 on Sunday and was trading near $77,800 at the start of the new week.

Why it matters
– Spot ETFs, which were approved in the U.S. in January 2024 and have grown rapidly since, hold physical BTC on behalf of investors. When the market price falls below the average purchase price of those ETF inflows, a majority of the funds’ capital is effectively at a loss.
– Historically, ETF holders hadn’t been deeply underwater—BTC mostly rose after the funds launched—so this could be the first sustained period where those investors feel meaningful drawdown pressure.
– Large, sustained outflows can be both a symptom and driver of bearish sentiment: redemptions reduce ETF demand for BTC and may increase selling pressure if funds or investors liquidate holdings.

What to watch next
– Whether net flows stabilize, reverse, or remain negative in the coming weeks will be key. A return to inflows would lift the ETFs’ average cost basis; continued large outflows could deepen downside pressure on BTC.
– Market reaction from other investor groups (miners, exchanges, institutions) and macro factors will also influence whether this becomes a temporary pullback or a longer bear phase for BTC.

Bottom line: On-chain data suggest U.S. BTC spot ETFs are now largely holding assets below their purchase price, reflecting recent heavy outflows and a pullback in Bitcoin’s price — a development that could reshape ETF-driven demand dynamics in the near term.

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