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Price action recap
– After hitting a multi-month low of $92.25 on Friday, Feb. 6, AAVE rallied roughly 29.7% and was trading near $119.64 at the time of writing. That bounce offers short-term optimism, but the bigger picture is still dominated by a downtrend: the 3-day chart shows a string of lower highs and lower lows since late September.
Important levels to watch
– Immediate supply sits around the $130 band, which has repeatedly capped rallies in February. A decisive move above ~$164 would be the clearest signal that swing traders can use to confirm a sustainable bullish reversal and a shift in the swing structure.
– Between the local resistances, $148.6 is another pivotal level; given the prevailing bearish trend, a rejection there could continue the downside pressure.
– On the downside, bulls must defend the $80–$100 demand zone to avoid a deeper pullback toward $50 later in the year.
Volume profile and flow
– A Fixed Range Volume Profile from the August 2024 S/R flip to the present highlights heavy historical interest: the Value Area Low sits at $121.2 while the Point of Control is at $168 — underscoring why upside through the mid-$160s is meaningful for bulls.
– On-chain flow shows some constructive signs: On-Balance Volume (OBV) remains above April 2025 lows, suggesting buying interest hasn’t evaporated completely.
Fundamentals and ecosystem news
– Aave’s revenue-generating capabilities remain solid, and Total Value Locked (TVL) briefly rose to $27.7 billion before easing back to about $26.3 billion over the past ten days.
– However, governance and ecosystem fractures are flashing warning lights: BGD Labs — one of Aave DAO’s top service providers — announced it will exit by early April, a move that highlights divisions within the ecosystem and could weigh on sentiment.
What traders should take away
– Short-term momentum can carry AAVE through local resistance if Bitcoin’s bullishness spills over, but the longer-term picture still favors bears until the mid-$160s are taken cleanly. For swing traders, a breakout past $164 is the key technical confirmation to look for; otherwise, defending the $80–$100 zone is critical to prevent a significant drop toward $50.
Disclaimer
This recap is informational and reflects the author’s analysis. It is not financial, investment, or trading advice. Cryptocurrency trading carries high risk — perform your own research before making any decisions. © 2026 AMBCrypto
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