Analyst: Bitcoin in Redistribution, Not a Bottom — Accumulation Likely Below $40K

A market technician’s revised cycle framework is gaining attention after a fresh take on where Bitcoin sits in its broader structural progression. The short version: this analyst argues BTC has not entered a genuine bottoming phase. Instead, price action is in a transitional sideways range — a redistribution zone that historically precedes a further leg down before a durable accumulation base appears. Based on that structure, the next true accumulation phase is projected to begin below $40,000.

How the analyst maps the cycle
– The chart traces the full cycle from the 2022 bear-market lows near $16,000 through the subsequent bull expansion.
– The low was a classic accumulation phase: long-term participants quietly added exposure while market sentiment stayed muted.
– As price rallied, two consolidation pauses appeared and were labeled reaccumulation phases — temporary absorption zones where stronger hands added positions and weaker holders rotated out, allowing the bullish markup to continue.
– At cycle highs, the framework sees distribution: supply shifts from early entrants to late buyers, capping upside and setting the stage for decline.
– The subsequent markdown was the decisive fall after the peak. According to the analyst, the market has since moved from markdown into redistribution.

Why redistribution matters
The analyst emphasizes that redistribution and accumulation can look similar on the surface — both are sideways ranges — but their structural roles differ. Redistribution typically forms after a breakdown, not at macro lows. While price may appear to stabilize in this range, control remains tilted toward sellers who are gradually repositioning supply rather than being absorbed by buyers.

Volume and participation tell the same story: trading activity has contracted rather than expanded, pointing to limited demand conviction. Instead of clear buying absorption, the current range appears to reflect orderly supply repositioning. That outward stability can mask an internal bias toward a continuation lower once the range resolves.

What comes next
Following the historical order the analyst highlights — accumulation, reaccumulation, distribution, markdown, redistribution, then fresh accumulation — the present range aligns with redistribution. That phase typically refreshes selling pressure and often resolves with an additional downward leg before a durable floor is established.

The charted path targets a zone below $40,000 as the likeliest area where structural conditions could begin to resemble genuine accumulation: prolonged consolidation, waning downside momentum, and visible absorption by long-term buyers. The analyst stresses this isn’t a magical reversal point but the region where base-building has historically taken hold and from which the next macro expansion can launch.

Bottom line
Under this framework, the cycle remains in transition. Until redistribution exhausts supply and volume/price dynamics show real demand absorption, the groundwork for Bitcoin’s next sustained bullish phase is unlikely to be complete — and sub-$40,000 is where the analyst expects that groundwork to start taking shape.

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