Analyst: Bitcoin Still in Redistribution — True Accumulation Likely Only Below $40K

A market technician’s updated cycle framework is drawing attention for its cautious take on Bitcoin’s next move: the analyst argues BTC has not entered a true bottoming phase but is instead trading inside a transitional range—one that historically precedes a deeper accumulation zone. Based on that structure, the next durable accumulation phase could appear only below $40,000.

What the chart shows
– The analyst mapped Bitcoin’s full cycle from the 2022 bear lows (near $16,000) through the subsequent bull expansion. The early stage is classic accumulation, where long-term holders built positions amid weak sentiment.
– As prices climbed, two pause periods emerged. The analyst labels these reaccumulation phases—temporary absorption and position shifting that don’t break the bullish trend, allowing stronger participants to add and weaker hands to exit.
– At cycle highs, the framework moves into distribution, when supply shifts from early buyers to late entrants, capping upside. That distribution eventually gave way to markdown—the decisive downswing after the peak.
– Following markdown, the market entered redistribution. Although redistribution can look like sideways trading much like accumulation, the analyst stresses the structural difference: redistribution typically follows a breakdown and reflects sellers re-establishing control rather than a bottoming process.

Why the analyst expects more downside
– Volume and participation dynamics in the current range point to contracting demand rather than clear absorption. Instead of buyers stepping in, the range appears to be a gradual repositioning of supply.
– Historically, the analyst notes, cycles follow a predictable order: accumulation (lows) → reaccumulation (advance) → distribution (peaks) → redistribution (post-decline) → fresh accumulation. The present range lines up with redistribution, which usually resolves with an additional downward leg before a durable floor forms.
– Based on that sequence, the analyst projects the next meaningful accumulation area to form below $40,000. That zone would need to show prolonged consolidation, easing downside momentum, and visible long-term demand absorption—signals not yet evident today.

What this means for market participants
– The sub-$40,000 region is framed not as an instant reversal point but as the likely foundation-building stage that historically precedes macro expansions.
– Until redistribution exhausts supply and clear absorption appears, the analyst’s framework suggests the market remains in transition and a confirmed launchpad for the next bullish cycle is unlikely.

Bottom line: according to this revised cycle map, Bitcoin is still working through a redistribution phase. If history is any guide, traders should prepare for the possibility of further downside before a durable accumulation base—and the next major bull cycle—can take shape below $40,000.

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